Monitor US inflation (CPI), Fed Funds interest rates, unemployment, GDP growth, mortgage rates, and yield curve inversion with real-time FRED benchmarks.
Economic Expansion / Soft Landing
Current Macroeconomic Regime: Disinflation & Labor Normalization
Headline CPI inflation has cooled toward target while core services remain resilient. The labor market exhibits gradual rebalancing without triggering classical Sahm Rule recession dynamics.
Source: Federal Reserve • BLS • BEAUpdated: Monthly Benchmark
Simulate the ripple effects of Federal Reserve interest rate policy adjustments across consumer credit cards, auto loans, 30-year mortgages, and equity multiples.
The dashboard displays verified monthly and quarterly benchmarks directly in your browser. If you hold a free Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) API key, you can optionally store it in your browser local storage to query thousands of historical economic series live.
Status: Using embedded benchmark figures (No API key required).
About this tool
How to use it
Scan the macroeconomic dashboard for real-time benchmark readings on Fed Funds, CPI inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth.
Examine the Yield Curve (10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread) and Sahm Rule indicator to monitor recession probabilities.
Inspect the interactive historical trend graphs to evaluate long-term macroeconomic monetary cycles.
Use the Federal Reserve Policy Scenario Simulator to model how central bank interest rate cuts or hikes impact mortgage rates and borrowing costs.
Why it matters
Federal Reserve monetary policy and macroeconomic indicators drive borrowing costs, equity valuations, and employment conditions. Consolidating authoritative data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) provides individuals and investors with clear economic situational awareness.
When to use it
Consult this dashboard prior to making major financial commitments (such as home mortgages or debt refinancing), during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision days, or when rebalancing investment portfolios.
Common questions
What is the 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve and why does it matter?
The yield curve plots the interest rates of US Treasury bonds across maturities. Normally, 10-year bonds yield more than 2-year notes. When the 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year yield (a negative spread, or inversion), it reflects market expectations of economic contraction. An inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession over the past 50 years.
What is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?
Created by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, the rule signals the start of a recession when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its minimum during the previous 12 months.
Can I connect a personal FRED API key?
Yes. While the dashboard is preloaded with current verified macroeconomic benchmarks, you can store a free St. Louis Fed FRED API key in your browser local storage to stream live economic time-series directly into the application.